Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.016050 0.018173 0.020474 0.023154 0.026191 0.029527 0.033471
2025-08-17 0.012337 0.015174 0.018514 0.022739 0.027945 0.034161 0.042156
2025-08-24 0.010554 0.013738 0.017703 0.023012 0.029945 0.038709 0.050660
2025-08-31 0.009135 0.012454 0.016782 0.022850 0.031160 0.042170 0.057920
2025-09-07 0.008294 0.011770 0.016488 0.023375 0.033204 0.046771 0.067010
2025-09-14 0.007224 0.010622 0.015401 0.022632 0.033336 0.048661 0.072389
2025-09-21 0.006474 0.009834 0.014714 0.022343 0.034022 0.051311 0.079013
2025-09-28 0.005742 0.008985 0.013839 0.021660 0.034009 0.052861 0.084039
2025-10-05 0.005483 0.008827 0.013976 0.022513 0.036394 0.058218 0.095417
2025-10-12 0.005183 0.008569 0.013923 0.023043 0.038289 0.062930 0.106144
2025-10-19 0.004929 0.008357 0.013916 0.023631 0.040305 0.067975 0.117832
2025-10-26 0.004556 0.007911 0.013482 0.023455 0.041005 0.070860 0.126053
2025-11-02 0.004238 0.007537 0.013148 0.023439 0.042008 0.074397 0.135841
2025-11-09 0.003885 0.007070 0.012614 0.023025 0.042270 0.076665 0.143568
2025-11-16 0.003676 0.006842 0.012476 0.023302 0.043792 0.081285 0.156018
2025-11-23 0.003423 0.006508 0.012119 0.023138 0.044468 0.084392 0.165856
2025-11-30 0.003288 0.006384 0.012134 0.023670 0.046502 0.090194 0.181419
2025-12-07 0.003000 0.005941 0.011512 0.022918 0.045965 0.091003 0.187100
2025-12-14 0.002795 0.005643 0.011142 0.022625 0.046306 0.093540 0.196485
2025-12-21 0.002563 0.005271 0.010598 0.021933 0.045773 0.094269 0.202148
2025-12-28 0.002518 0.005276 0.010804 0.022796 0.048525 0.101918 0.223186
2026-01-04 0.002441 0.005207 0.010854 0.023334 0.050628 0.108376 0.242205
2026-01-11 0.002373 0.005153 0.010929 0.023929 0.052902 0.115374 0.263037